Draft is Only 157 Days Away
That was fun while it lasted, yeah? Unfortunately, we only got roughly 96 hours of fantasy bliss before dark hand of reality drug us back into the inescapable black hole of this season.
In case there was any confusion or hope remaining out there, Thursday night illustrated rather starkly that looking ahead to the draft in April is the next big event on the Packers calendar. The games will still happen, and there’s plenty we can still hope to learn from those.
But the only positive the Packers record can now produce is a (hopefully) top-five pick, and that’s where we come in.
Current Draft Position
Green Bay Packers – 12th Pick
FPI chance to earn top-five pick: 3.1%
FPI chance to earn top-10 pick: 20.1%
After falling outside the top ten with their win over Dallas, Green Bay climbed back to just outside, sitting now with the 12th pick.
These last 7 weeks will see quite a bit of pick shuffling with 13 teams sitting at 3 or 4 wins. All it takes is one win here and there to see teams picking in the top five soon looking at pick 9 or 10. The only team that seems like a lock is the Texans, of course. There’s no topping their stink.
As terrible as it is to say, while I enjoyed the morale boost that came from Dallas, that win alone may end up being the difference between the Packers drafting around the 10 spot and a potential top-5 pick. Ultimately, the difference between those picks most likely won’t matter, but let’s think hypothetically.
Let’s say LaFleur decides to do the unthinkable, but logical, thing and sits Rodgers, either after the Eagles game or after the bye week, and we get 4-5 weeks of Jordan Love as the starter. Those games are probably going to tell you what exactly you have in Love as a quarterback, or at the very least if you think he’s the guy moving forward.
What happens if you get to the end of the season and they realize, “He’s not our guy”. If you’re inside that top-5, you have the flexibility to pull the rip cord and make a move, but as of right now, they’re playing the usual “best available player” role.
The Packers still have one of the tougher remaining schedules, currently 7th toughest. Only Houston, Chicago and Jacksonville have tougher schedules than the Packers and are ahead Green Bay in the draft standing. That schedule includes games against the Bears and the Rams, which gives the Packers direct opportunities to make a jump up the picks.
We don’t use the “T” word around here, but maybe if certain starters start getting some rest, it’s not the worst thing in the world if those games don’t go the way of the Pack.
“#1” Hit of the Week
“One” – Metallica
The song is based on a WWI wounded Army solider who has lost his limbs, jaw and sight from a landmine. He remains alive in a military hospital, going insane at the pain and suffering he feels, unable to communicate with anyone. Eventually, he’s able to communicate with his doctors through Morse code one message: “Kill me”.
A bit darker this week, fitting with the symbolic end of the season.
While not directly based on it, the song pulls many striking parallels to the 1939 novel Johnny Got His Gun. The book was made into a 1971 movie, which the Metallica song samples heavily in their music video. In fact, the band was paying so much in royalty fees for the continued use of the movie clips they eventually bought the rights to movie outright.
“One” was nominated for and won the first ever Grammy for Best Metal Performance in 1990 and is one of the iconic band’s most well-known and popular songs.
Enjoy this palate cleanser before you keep reading.
Week 10 Outlook
Every week, we’ll take a look at the teams sitting ahead of the Packers in the draft order and their next opponent. Each game gets a rating of one to five tanks based on how likely they are to win, thereby clearing the way to the top draft spot.
Houston Texans: @ Miami Dolphins – 1 Tank
Keep Houston at a 1 tank the rest of the season. They’ve got #1 locked up.
Carolina Panthers: Denver Broncos – 2 Tanks
The Broncos have an elite defense, who should feast on the lack of a Carolina offense. However, don’t underestimate Denver’s ability to screw everything up all the time.
Chicago Bears: @ New York Jets – 3 Tanks
The Jets look like world beaters vs any opponent that isn’t the Patriots. Chicago can make this a game if Fields runs for 300 yards, but if he has to pass, they’re dead.
Las Vegas Raiders: @ Seattle Seahawks – 2 Tanks
I crapped on the Raiders last week and they, by which I mean Davante Adams, shut me up. However, that win should be credited just as much to the incompetence of Denver than anything Vegas did right.
Denver Broncos: @ Carolina Panthers – 4 Tanks
As previously mentioned, the Panthers don’t have an offense. If Wilson is able to keep this offense from driving off a cliff, they should have no problem.
Los Angeles Rams: @ Kansas City Chiefs: 1 Tank
No Cooper Kupp. Stafford is banged up again. No chance.
Cleveland Browns: Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 3 Tanks
Cleveland looked surprisingly like a real football team vs the Bills Sunday. This should be the debut for Watson in a Browns uniform, which means the start of a unearned redemption story.
Pittsburgh Steelers: @ Indianapolis Colts – 3 Tanks
The Colts nearly took down the red-hot Eagles last week. Philly was playing scared because they had something to lose. Pittsburgh is a dead man, and you can’t kill what’s already dead.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Baltimore Ravens – 3 Tanks
The Jags are coming off their bye week and the Ravens found themselves in a dogfight with Carolina last week. Jacksonville is a team that can stick with anyone and Baltimore is a team that will let anyone stick around with them.
New Orleans Saints: @ San Francisco – 1 Tanks
San Fran just boatraced Arizona on Monday night without Kyler Murray. The Saints meanwhile are still trotting out Andy Dalton with no one to throw to.
Arizona Cardinals: Los Angeles Chargers – 2 Tanks
This is all depends on if Kyler Murray is able to go. We saw the floor of Colt McCoy on Monday night in Mexico City. Without Murray’s athleticism, this team is dead in the water. With him, they can get into a shootout and have a punching chance.
Famous First of the Week
The first crewed hot-air balloon flight was made by Jean-François Pilâtre de Rozier and François Laurent, marquis d’Arlandes – November 21st, 1783
Nowhere to go but up, right?