It does not get any better in the world of betting for Team Degenerate than what occurred in Week 13. It was a perfect 8-0 week with a gain of 18 units. Our Game of the Year on Cleveland +6 over Tennessee was an absolute steal with Cleveland sealing the deal in the first half.
Of course, you can’t go on that kind of run without some luck. The under 50 in the Houston/Indianapolis game looked dead at halftime with Indianapolis leading 24-20 at halftime, yet somehow only two combined points were scored in the second half and we took home three units. The Packers and four player props accounted for the other wins.
An important thing to remember when you’re hot is to not get overconfident. Whether you’re winning or losing, it is important to maintain a level head. You should not increase your bet size when you’re up a lot. That is an easy way to not take home profit long term, which is always the goal.
For the year, this column is 55-29-2 with a gain of 38 units.
Green Bay Packers (-8.5) at Detroit Lions
The Packers seem due for a letdown spot following consecutive home blowout wins over Chicago and Philadelphia. With the firing of Matt Patricia, the Lions had a jolt if energy in a 34-30 win over the Bears last week. With how much Patricia was hated by the players, this is not a surprise at all.
If the Lions were getting Kenny Golladay back I might have been inclined to bet on them with how much he means to the offense, but he is still out with a hip injury. De’Andre Swift does appear on track to return to help the running game.
Detroit’s defense is so awful that they are impossible to play on here with how the Green Bay offense is rolling. From rushing the passer to stopping the run to covering people, there is not a single thing the Lions do well on defense. Aaron Rodgers may look to pad his stats in a late push for the MVP.
Since I don’t see the Packers being 100 percent focused for this game, I will not make a spread wager on them. However, teasing down six points through the key numbers of six and three makes perfect sense. I will tease them with Tampa Bay, which I fully expect to beat Minnesota in a huge spot coming off a bye with Eric Kendricks out for the Vikings.
PICK: Tease Packers -2.5 and Buccaneers PK 1 unit
Buffalo Bills -1.5 over Pittsburgh Steelers 3 units
The Steelers are in an awful schedule spot here with their third game in 12 days and without having a bye since near the beginning of the season. In addition to the tough scheduling spot, the injuries are piling up on the Pittsburgh defense.
The Steelers will be without their top three inside linebackers in Devin Bush, Vince Williams and Robert Spillane, their top corner in Joe Haden and their second-best pass rush in Bud Dupree. That is not where you want to be against Josh Allen right now.
In addition to Allen playing like an elite quarterback, the Buffalo defense has seen a resurgence in recent weeks in wins over the Chargers and 49ers.
San Francisco 49ers -3 over Washington Football Team 2 units
Everybody is going to jump on the Washington bandwagon now, and they are a publicly backed underdog here following the upset win over Pittsburgh. However, they caught Pittsburgh in a tough scheduling spot while Washington had been off since Thanksgiving.
San Francisco should be more comfortable now playing in Glendale for the second week in a row. This is Washington’s third road game in a row and it will be without Antonio Gibson, who is a huge chunk of their offense. Expect the 49ers to bounce back here and stay in playoff contention.
New York Giants +3 over Arizona Cardinals 2 units
I’m not sure I understand this line. If not for a miracle DeAndre Hopkins catch, the Cardinals would be losers of five straight. How are they favored by three on the road here over a Giants team playing inspired football?
A big problem for Arizona right now is the health of Kyler Murray’s shoulder. He has not been able to run the ball in the last three games, and without that element that Arizona offense is just not nearly the same. New York’s defense should be able to continue its strong play.
Los Angeles Chargers +1.5 over Atlanta Falcons 1 unit
The Chargers will be playing hard after getting shut out and embarrassed, 45-0, against New England last week. Since 1991, teams that were shutout are 108-79 ATS the following week.
This is a sandwich spot for the Falcons after playing New Orleans last week with Tampa Bay up next. Those games are basically their biggest games of the year, while this game is meaningless.
Allen Robinson over 5.5 catches 2 units
Robinson has a 27% target share with Mitchell Trubisky under center this season. The Texans defense is egregious defending the pass to begin with and now will be without top corner Bradley Roby after he got suspended. The Texans have allowed their most targeted receiver to catch at least six passes in eight of their last nine games.
A.J. Brown over 58.5 receiving yards 2 units
Brown’s number is six yards below teammate Corey Davis. Davis has been producing well, but Brown’s number should still never be below his. The disaster that is the Jacksonville pass defense has been talked about here numerous times.
Justin Jefferson over 73.5 yards 2 units
With how impenetrable the Tampa Bay run defense is, the Vikings will be forced to throw more. Tyreek Hill and Robert Woods have similar profiles to Jefferson, and they have both torched the Tampa pass defense the past two games. Jefferson has hit this over in three of his past four games.