Hopefully a sign of good things to come in the second half of the season, Team Degenerate finished Week 10 at 4-2 with a gain of six units. Not only were they wins, but they were all sweat free wins, which is the best way to win. The Eagles, Cowboys, Patriots and Packers were never in doubt. Philly is a team that is playing very underrated football right now and was a big gain of four units.
That brings our record to 28-34-2 with a loss of 10 units on the year. Let’s try and make it a winning streak. I don’t have a ton of games I like this week, so we will try to nail some player props.
Green Bay Packers (-1.5) at Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are an underrated football team at this juncture. They have not lost a game by more than seven points all year and four of their five losses were by four points or less. All of their losses (Bengals, Cardinals, Cowboys, Browns and Ravens) are to quality football teams.
Kirk Cousins has been playing very good football with 18 touchdowns against just two interceptions. A lot of the advanced metrics have these two teams as close to even, including DVOA which ranks Minnesota ninth and Green Bay 12th. Yet, the Packers are laying points on the road. Minnesota is also getting healthier with the return of Harrison Smith, Patrick Peterson and Anthony Barr to the defense.
A have a few concerns for the Packers in this matchup. One of them is fatigue. The injuries continue to pile up for Green Bay and it has yet to have a bye yet. The Packers have played in a lot of high profile games in a row now. If Rashan Gary is out or compromised, the pass rush could suffer with Whitney Mercilus also out.
I think one of the main reasons the Packers have been so good defensively is they’ve been able to keep Darnell Savage and Adrian Amos deep while still not getting gashed in the run game. Keeping them deep against Dalvin Cook may not be an option. Will the corners be able to play the great ball they have been playing without help over the top against the likes of Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen?
The offense also just hasn’t been clicking all season. You can give the obvious excuse that Aaron Rodgers had no practice time last week, but this is an offense that has not scored at least 27 points in a game since Week 4. With the Packers not being able to gain much separation in games lately and the Vikings propensity to play in close games, a teaser seems like an easy call here going through the key numbers of three and seven.
The Packers are 9-0 against the spread since their Week 1 loss to New Orleans
Pick: Vikings +1.5 1 unit
6-point teaser Vikings +7.5 and Seahawks +7 3 units
Cardinals at Seahawks Under 48.5 4 units
Our pick of the week brings us to the pacific northwest. This total is too high with both teams playing with banged up quarterbacks. Whenever Pete Carroll’s offense struggles his answer is just run the ball more every single time.
Houston Texans +10 over Tennessee Titans 2 units
This is a great spot for Houston coming off a bye and an obvious flat spot for Tennessee coming off a number of big games with New England on deck. Tennessee has been outgained by a combined 262 yards the past two games without Derrick Henry despite winning both. The injuries also continue to pile up for the Titans
Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 over New Orleans Saints 2 units
We will ride the Eagles again. Without Terron Armstead, Ryan Ramczyk and Alvin Kamara, the Saints just have absolutely nothing on offense, The Eagles should be over three in this game.
Jamison Crowder over 3.5 catches 2 units
Joe Flacco is back at quarterback for the Jets and he has familiarity with Crowder from last season. Miami really struggles covering the slot and has lockdown corners on the outside in Byron Jones and Xavien Howard.
Tua Tagovailoa over 34.5 pass attempts 1 unit
The Dolphins can’t run the ball and have been passing the ball a ton this season. In his last three starts, Tua has attempted 47, 40 and 39 passes.
Nick Chubb over 85.5 rushing yards 2 units
This line is set way too low for Chubb. He has hit this in five of seven games this year and Kareem Hunt is still out. Chubb averages 103 yards rushing a game and Detroit ranks 29th in rushing defense DVOA while allowing 135.7 yards per game on the ground.
Brandin Cooks over 5.5 catches 2 units
Cooks averages 6.7 receptions on 11.7 targets per game with Tyrod under center. The Titans allow 16.2 receptions per game to wide receivers, which is the most in the NFL.
Tee Higgins over 59.5 receiving yards 2 units
The Raiders Cover 3 will protect against Jamar Chase over the top, which will open things up for Higgins. You might be surprised to know Higgins leads the Bengals in targets in the seven games he’s played and has hit this line in each of the last three games he’s played.
A.J. Dillon over 80.5 rushing yards 1 unit
Dillon could exceed 20 carries in this game without Aaron Jones, which should allow him to reach this number. The Vikings give up 4.7 yards per attempt on the ground, which is the third most in the NFL.
Aaron Rodgers under 24.5 completions 1 unit
Rodgers has gone under this total in seven of nine games this season. He has only averaged 22.5 completions in the Matt LaFleur era. Minnesota allows just 21.9 completions per game and has only allowed two quarterbacks to exceed this number.