For the second week in a row, it was a successful day of gambling. Team Degenerate hit on all team plays last week with the Vikings, Texans, Eagles and the under in Seattle/Arizona all coming through.
The player props were a mixed bag and the Seahawks made us lose out on the Vikings/Seahawks teaser. All in all, it adds up to a 7-5 Week 11 and a gain of five units, which brings our season total closer to even as we are now 35-39-2 with a loss of five units on the year. Let’s make it three strong weeks in a row.
Green Bay Packers (+2) vs. Los Angeles Rams
Initially going into the week, I wasn’t going to have a play on the Packers game. Green Bay opened as a favorite by one point, which is exactly what I would have made it. The Rams have a huge advantage in rest as they are coming off a bye and the Packers have yet to have one so late in the year, but I was hesitant to bet the Rams in the cold in Lambeau Field. Matthew Stafford may have experience playing in it, but the rest of the team still resides and practices in Los Angeles all year.
However, the line has moved three points in the direction of the Rams and I cannot figure out why. The only thing different for the Packers from last week is the loss of Elgton Jenkins, and while he is a huge loss it’s not worth three points to the number. Aaron Rodgers hasn’t practiced this week, but it is no different than last week and he put up one of his best games of the year. There was nothing the Packers did last week that should have made this number move to +2.
Green Bay outgained the Vikings per play 8.6 to 6.2 and had no turnovers, and those numbers will result in a win the vast majority of the time. Rodgers had a 148.4 passer rating and four touchdowns, which is the highest passer rating ever for a quarterback who lost when he had four touchdowns.
It was not a bad loss by any means, while the Rams played awful for two games prior to the bye week. Matt LaFluer has been a home favorite of at least three points in all 23 home games of his tenure and has gone 20-3 straight up and 16-7 against the spread. I don’t have when the last time the Packers were home underdogs with a healthy Rodgers, but it was definitely in the Mike MaCarthy era.
With the Packers being such a dominant home team, I’ll have to give them a play as such a rare time as a home underdog.
Pick: Packers +2 1 unit
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 over Indianapolis Colts 4 units
Very rarely do I bet a public team as a road favorite, but I’m making an exception here. This is a fantastic matchup for the Bucs because the Colts rely on Jonathan Taylor for their offense to compete, but he won’t be able to do much of anything against the Tampa run defense with Vita Vea back because nobody can. The Colts are +15 in turnover margin, which is in unsustainable number.
San Francisco 49ers -3 over Minnesota Vikings 2 units
The Vikings will be without Danielle Hunter, Everson Griffen, Michael Pierce and Dalvin Tomlinson on the defensive line. That is not a place you want to be against San Francisco, which has seemed to finally find its stride as the team has gotten healthier.
Carolina Panthers -2 over Miami Dolphins 2 units
The Dolphins are overrated right now and Carolina has a huge advantage with their defensive line against the hideous Miami offensive line. Miami won’t be able to run the ball or protect the passer, so Carolina should be able to get a win in a game it knows it needs to stay in the playoff hunt.