The hot streak continues as Team Degenerate turned in a second consecutive week with a gain of five units. The greatest triumph was the Dallas Cowboys winning outright as seven-point underdogs over the Minnesota Vikings for a gain of three units. The Titans were another underdog selection that won outright while the Packers and Chiefs were against the spread losers. For the props, Keenan Allen and Diontae Johnson provided no sweat at all in easy wins.
It all adds up to a 5-2 week and Team Degenerate is now 43-25-2 on the season with a gain of 24 units. I don’t see a lot of games I like on the card this week, so it will be more of a prop heavy article.
Green Bay Packers (-8.5) vs. Chicago Bears
We lost a unit betting on the Packers last week, but Team Degenerate will be going back to the well again. The loss to the Colts last week was a bit fluky with the four turnovers, and the first half was likely the best half of football Green Bay has played all season.
Aaron Rodgers is 32-15 ATS following a loss in his career. It’s been an even stronger trend of late, as the Packers are a dominant 12-0 ATS following their last 12 losses. The team has shown up following a loss every time in the Matt LaFleur era.
After being on the Bears for their last two games, there is no way I can go back to that well again. The Packers should be able to get enough points on the board to make sure the Bears can’t hang. It’s hard to see anything changing in the Bears offensive ineptitude, even with a change in quarterbacks.
To make matters worse for the Bears, Akiem Hicks and Charles Leno Jr. did not practice at all this week, with their respective injuries. The loss of Hicks is a huge loss on the Bears’ defense and their offensive line is bad enough that the Bears can’t afford to lose anymore pieces. With the Bears not being able to run the ball, that should also play into Green Bay’s strength on defense.
Pick: Packers 1 unit
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5 over Kansas City Chiefs 2 units
Great spot for Tampa Bay coming off another national television loss while the Chiefs essentially locked up the AFC West with their game-winning drive against the Raiders. Much like Rodgers, Tom Brady has been stellar in his career off a loss. He is 45-22 ATS off of losses in his career overall and that becomes 21-3 ATS if you only look at instances where Brady is either a favorite or underdog of fewer than three points.
The 3.5 should be huge as a three-point outcome either way seems like a reasonable outcome. The Chiefs don’t have the horses on defense that the Saints and Rams do to contain the Tampa Bay weapons.
Tennessee Titans +3 over Indianapolis Colts 2 units
As somebody who had a ticket on the Colts in the previous Thursday Night Football matchup between these two teams, I was not feeling good about it in the first half. The Colts were able to come through thanks to two blocked punts, which made it a blowout.
I expect Tennessee to bounce back in this spot, and the COVID-19 situation in Indianapolis will certainly help. The Colts will be without DeForest Buckner and Denico Autry on the defensive line and Jonathan Taylor at running back. Center Ryan Kelly is also out with an injury.
Mike Williams Over 42.5 receiving yards 3 units
Williams has had at least 62 yards in four of his last five games as the Chargers have finally unleashed Justin Herbert, so I don’t understand this line. He has at least seven targets in four of his last six games and Tre’Davious White may be shadowing Keenan Allen.
Rashard Higgins over 35.5 receiving yards 2 units
Higgins has a deflated number because three out of the last four games Cleveland has played have been severely impacted by weather. Without Odell Beckham Jr., Higgins should easily be able to get at least four targets and his average yards per target is 12.6 this season. The Jaguars secondary might be the easiest to attack in the NFL right now.
Sterling Shepherd over 4.5 catches 1 unit
Shepherd has hit this in five of the six games he has played this season and is catching 82 percent of his targets. His opponent in the slot will be LeShaun Sims, who was a career backup for Tennessee and a fifth-round pick out of Southern Utah. He gives up catches at the 10th-highest rate in the league.
Justin Jefferson over 73.5 yards 1 unit
If you take out the first two games of the season, Jefferson has averaged 97 yards per game. He leads the NFL in yards per target and yards per reception. The Panthers also represent a quality matchup and Adam Thielen is unlikely to play. CB1 Donte Jackson is also out for Carolina.
D.J. Moore over 59.5 yards 2 units
Moore has at least 55 receiving yards in five of his last six games with four games of over 93 yards in that span. The Minnesota secondary is certainly one of the more friendlier units to attack in the league.
Damien Harris over 48.5 yards 1 unit
Harris has gone over this total in four of his last five games. Prior to last week’s game with Seattle, Arizona put defensive linemen Jordan Phillips and Corey Peters on injured reserve. The result was Seattle rushing for 165 yards without Chris Carson even active.