Team Degenerate: Green Bay Packers and Week 15 NFL Betting Preview

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Team Degenerate managed to stay on fire in Week 14 with a 3-1-1 record and a gain of four units that quite frankly should have been a clean sweep. The Browns blew a 24-6 halftime lead and ended up pushing at -2 while the Bengals would have easily got the cover against San Francisco if it wasn’t for a fumbled punt and ridiculous Zac Taylor play calling.

Meanwhile, the Packers, Bucs and Cowboys all delivered wins. The Cowboys and Bucs forced us to sweat like the Browns after blowing huge leads but ended up on top. For the season, Team Degenerate is now 46-43-3 with a gain of 11 units.

Green Bay Packers -7 at Baltimore Ravens

I cannot in good conscience recommend the Packers at -7 when you could have gotten a better price all week. The line was down to -4.5 early in the week when it seemed like Lamar Jackson had a decent chance of playing. To me it does not make much of a difference between a banged up Jackson and Tyrone Huntley.

Fortunately, there is another way to attack this I you missed out on the good Packers line. The team total currently sits at 25.5 for the Packers, which I absolutely love to the over. The Packers hav easily hit this over their last three games with a very hot Aaron Rodgers.

The Ravens defense has not allowed this in their last five games, but those opponents were the Dolphins, Bears, Steelers and Browns twice. Now, they will be without Calais Campbell and Marlon Humphrey. It was an overrated defense anyways that is 23rd in overall DVOA and 26th in pass defense DVOA.

Pick: Packers Team Total over 25.5 4 units

Pittsburgh Steelers +1 over Tennessee Titans 4 units 

The Titans continue to be the league’s most overrated team. The market is still treating them as if they’re an average team, but the reality is they’re a below average team. They were only able to muster a pathetic 3.7 yards per play against a quitting Jaguars team last week. The Steelers are still alive in the wild card hunt and Big Ben has been playing better lately. These are similar teams, but we’re catching points with the home team.

Detroit Lions +13 over Arizona Cardinals 2 units

Last week was an obvious flat spot for the Lions, but this is a week for them to get back to the great effort they have been giving all season. This should be a good week to bet underdogs after the favorites dominated last week. Not because underdogs are now “due” but because oftentimes favorites are placed with a point spread tax the next week when they collectively dominate the week before. This is too many points for Arizona to be laying on the road without DeAndre Hopkins.

Cincinnati Bengals +3 over Denver Broncos 1 unit

The Bengals are the slightly better team here, so I will take the +3 with the much better quarterback. Betting on Zac Taylor again though is sure to raise my blood pressure. The advanced line on this game was Cincy -2.5, and I don’t get what has changed over a week for it go so far the other way.

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