Merry Christmas to all, and what better way to enjoy your holiday weekend than to continue winning money betting on the NFL? There is no thrill like it. It was another winning week two weeks ago for Team Degenerate as we went 6-2 with a gain of nine units.
For the year, we are 64-31-2 with a gain of 47 units. In the last two weeks of the year, motivation will be a big factor. Finding teams to bet against that will not be motivated to play should be profitable.
Green Bay Packers -3 vs. Tennessee Titans
This should be a nice measuring stick game for a Packers team that has only beaten one team with a winning record all season even though this game does not mean nearly as much in the standings as previously expected.
Money has come in on the Titans to bump this spread down from the opener of 4.5 down to 3. I don’t understand the reason for that as the Packers are coming off a game in which they played about right to the spread and Tennessee was able to feast on a lowly Detroit team. Nothing that we thought about these two teams changed at all. I think the original number was correct, so the value is on the Packers.
The last real team the Titans played — Cleveland — blew them out of the water three weeks ago. If Green Bay can clinch the No. 1 seed with a win in this game, I would like the Packers even more here. Most of the narrative is how the Packers have no chance of containing Derrick Henry, which may be true. However, Tennessee has one of the worst pass rushes in the NFL, and Aaron Rodgers has been lethal when not under pressure this season.
The Titans are also contending with their fourth road game in six games and have not had a bye since Week 4. Another factor to look at is Matt LaFleur wanting to get back at the organization who passed him over as head coach in favor of Mike Vrabel.
Pick: Packers -3 2 units
Arizona Cardinals -5 over San Francisco 49ers 2 units
Love the spot here for Arizona. If there is an NFL team who should not care anymore it is the San Francisco 49ers. They were a Super Bowl contender coming into the year that has been decimated by injuries and is now on their third quarterback.
In addition, they have spent the last month in Arizona living away from their families during the holiday season. Even though George Kittle is coming back, San Francisco could be without Richard Sherman, Deebo Samuel, Javon Kinlaw, Dion Jordan, Raheem Mostert and Emmanuel Moseley. Arizona needs this game to help secure the NFC’s final playoff berth.
Buffalo Bills -7 over New England Patriots 3 units
After being embarrassed by New England for much of the past two decades, Buffalo is finally in a position for revenge. I believe they will do that and run up the score if presented the opportunity to do so in the national spotlight.
New England has no offense to hang with the Bills and this number would be much higher if it wasn’t for Bill Belicheck. However, with no shot at the playoffs how does a franchise that is used to being in the Super Bowl most years get up for this game?
Cleveland Browns -9 over New York Jets 2 units
Big road favorites are not often a place I normally look, but this is a unique opportunity. With the Jets achieving their singular goal of winning a game this season, this should be a huge letdown spot. Cleveland now has an unexpected legit chance to win the AFC North and will be playing hard. This line also seems short considering the Rams closed as 17-point favorites over the Jets last week. Bet on Baker Mayfield when not facing a team that can apply pressure on him, and the Jets certainly cannot without Quinnen Williams.
Los Angeles Chargers/Denver Broncos over 48.5 points 3 units
This number seems very low with the injuries the Broncos have in their secondary. It’s basically a unit that is not NFL caliber at this point and Justin Herbert should have no problem slicing and dicing it no matter who he has at wide receiver. Drew Lock has been playing better of late for Denver and Joey Bosa is out for LA.
Los Angeles Rams +1.5 over Seattle Seahawks 1 unit
The Rams should bounce back as probably a big reason why they lost to the Jets was that they were looking ahead to this game. Seattle’s defensive numbers look a lot better as of late but that’s what will happen when you play against Carson Wentz, Colt McCoy, Sam Darnold and Dwayne Haskins.
The Seattle offense has also gone the other way as of late despite the winning four of five games. Tyler Lockett has gone missing and he’s a huge part of their offense when it’s going well. I still believe the Rams are the better team here and the line does not reflect that.