Christmas came early last week for Team Degenerate as the blazing hot streak continued. We swept the board last week with a 4-0 record for a gain of 11 units. The Green Bay Packers came through for us on the over 25.5 team total as they dominated the Baltimore secondary as expected. This made much more sense to me to isolate that matchup rather than bet on the large spread, which Green Bay did not cover.
The Steelers came through for another four unit win, although that was pretty fortunate with some turnover luck. The Lions won outright as 13-point underdogs and the Bengals also were victorious as dogs. For the season, Team Degenerate is 50-43-3 with a gain of 22 units.
Green Bay Packers -7 vs. Cleveland Browns
The Packers enter Christmas controlling their own destiny for home field throughout the NFC playoffs. This time of year there is something I like to call the dream crusher, which is what the Cleveland Browns experienced last week in their loss to Las Vegas.
It very likely knocked what was thought to be a preseason playoff team out of playoff contention. The following week is when I look to fade those teams as they are often lethargic and unmotivated. COVID-19 is still an issue for Cleveland this week, particularly across the offensive line.
With the Packers sitting at -7, a six-point teaser makes the most sense going through the key numbers of seven and three. We will tease them with the Atlanta Falcons, who also sit at -7. The Falcons have been able to beat bad teams all year, and Tim Boyle is an automatic fade as the Lion starting quarterback. Sorry to say that to the way too many Packers fans and media who legitimately thought he had talent, but he is brutal.
Pick: Packers -1, Falcons -1 6-point teaser 2 units
Cincinnati Bengals over 23.5 team total 5 units
Going back to this well once again. The books have not adjusted nearly enough for how injured and poor this Baltimore Ravens secondary is. The defense was overrated to begin with and now just has nothing left. The Bengals already scored 40 points on the Ravens this year when they were healthier and have Joe Burrow, Ja’Mar Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd ready to pounce yet again.
Arizona Cardinals -1.5 over Indianapolis Colts 3 units
Love this spot for Arizona in a classic bounce back situation. The value is on the Cardinals as the advanced line before last week’s game was -4 in favor of Arizona. Indianapolis was not as impressive as it seemed against New England with Carson Wentz only competing five passes while Arizona will be extra focused after their embarrassment from last week. Helping matters, the Colts will be missing three offensive line starters.
Minnesota Vikings +3.5 over Los Angeles Rams 2 units
All of a sudden everybody thinks the Rams are back with three straight wins, but two of them were against Seattle and Jacksonville. The Vikings are only 7-7, but five of the seven losses have been by four points or less and all seven have been by one score. Los Angeles is in a tough situation against a non-common opponent coming off a Tuesday game. The public will be all over Los Angeles here, but Minnesota needs this game like blood for their playoff chances. This is similar to when they beat the Packers at home.
Denver Broncos -1 over Las Vegas Raiders 2 units
The Raiders have not been a good team at all without Henry Ruggs and Darren Waller and were fortunate to get past a depleted Cleveland Browns team. Even with Drew Lock, the Broncos are the better team and will get past the Raiders in what amounts to an elimination game.
Buffalo Bills +2.5 over New England Patriots 1 unit
I still think Buffalo is the better team here despite the mediocre record. Without howling winds, Josh Allen should be able to do enough to win this matchup this time around. The loss of Tre’Davious White is not felt as hard against a limited pass attack.