Team Degenerate: Green Bay Packers and Week 17 NFL Betting Preview

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It was an up and down week for Team Degenerate in Week 16, but it was another winning one. This marks the our seventh straight winning week with the last losing one coming in Week 9.

Team Degenerate finished 3-3 with a gain of one unit last week to bring our season total to 53-46-3 with a gain of 23 units. One of our biggest plays of the year — the Bengals team total over 23.5 — nearly cashed in the first quarter as the we continue to pick on the Baltimore defense.

The Packers and Falcons both made it interesting on the teaser, but both survived. The Bills were our third winner as they got revenge at New England. Somehow, Arizona did not cover in a game we got great closing line value on when COVID hit the Colts even more than anticipated. Denver was an awful pick while the Vikings blew a chance to beat the Rams, but more on that in a bit.

Hopefully, the winning streak can continue to ride for the rest of the season.

Green Bay Packers (-13.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings outgunned the Rams last week and won the turnover battle in a 3-1 fashion, yet somehow did not cover as +3.5 underdogs, which is nearly impossible to do when you do both of those things. Now with Sean Mannion in for Kirk Cousins in this game, Minnesota comes in as a massive underdog.

The Vikings have not lost a game by more than one score all season while the Packers have not been blowing teams out this year, so the inclination would be to side with Minnesota. However, it’s hard to justify a bet on Mannion, who could be one of the worst backup quarterbacks in the league.

I’ll pass on this game, but what I want to see from the Packers is aggression on defense. Get right up on the receivers and blitz against a backup quarterback. If they don’t, continue to play passive defense and let Dalvin Cook run all over them, it will be a big red flag headed into the postseason.

Pick: Pass

Los Angeles Rams over 24.5 team points 4 units

Once again, we will be playing against the Ravens defense for a huge play as the books have still not adjusted properly to the state of their defense. There’s no reason not to as the Ravens still do not have most of their secondary back, although Jimmy Smith is off the COVID list.

The Rams have hit this total in 11 of their 15 games this season, and luckily for them the temperature will be in the 60’s in Baltimore for a January game. Los Angeles has been a much better offense since the Green Bay game when Sony Michel took over as the lead back the following week. As long as Matt Stafford does not throw the ball to the wrong team, the Rams should be in the 30’s here.

Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 over Cleveland Browns 4 units

The Steelers will give an all-out effort for Big Ben in his final home game while the Browns have nothing to play for with their playoff chances shot in what was supposed to be a Super Bowl contending team.

This number should also be closer to a pickem game by my power rankings as there is nothing the Browns have done this year to be favored by this much on the road. The Browns have won by more than three points just once all season and already lost to Pittsburgh at home.

The great spot and the spread being off due to Pittsburgh being embarrassed last week in Kansas City gives us a big bet here. To make matters better, Mike Tomlin is 12-2-1 ATS all-time as a home dog.

Cincinnati Bengals +4.5 over Kansas City Chiefs 2 units

The Chiefs have been great, but this is an exhale spot for them while this the biggest Bengals home game in an extremely long time. They will be fired up for this one, and Joe Burrow has been one of the best quarterback’s against the blitz this year, which is the specialty for the Kansas City defense. The number is a couple points too high and the Bengals are in the better spot.

Tennessee Titans -3 over Miami Dolphins 2 units

I’m doing something I have rarely done this season — betting on the Titans. Finally, there is a more overrated team than Tennessee, and it happens to be the team they’re playing.

Here is a list of the quarterbacks Miami has beaten in its seven-game winning streak: Davis Mills, Lamar Jackson, Joe Flacco, Cam Newton, Mike Glennon, Zach Wilson and Ian Book. That is as gross as it gets. The Titans looked like a different team with A.J. Brown back and have a huge rest advantage as they last played on Thursday and Miami played on Monday Night Football.

Las Vegas Raiders +8 over Indianapolis Colts 1 unit

The Colts I think are a little overrated, so they’re a team I’m looking to play against. Las Vegas has the NFL’s third-best run defense in EPA per play over the last six weeks, which you will need against Jonathan Taylor. The Raiders are also playing for their postseason lives and this line is a little much for my liking.

 

 

 

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