Team Degenerate: Green Bay Packers and Week 18 NFL Betting Preview

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Eight winning weeks in a row. Things were looking pretty bleak early in the season, but that has all been erased by this heater over the second half of the regular season.

Team Degenerate went 4-1 with a gain of five units in Week 17 to push the season record to 57-46-3 with a gain of 28 units. The only loss was on the Rams team total with Matthew Stafford again playing like a rookie for much of the proceedings. The Steelers, Bengals, Titans and Raiders were all ATS winners without any sweat, and the Bengals, Raiders and Steelers were all outright winners as underdogs.

The final week of the regular season is one with great opportunity for the experienced bettor. Lines will shift as information gets out about who is playing and who isn’t, but if you can get out ahead of the line movement you can get some great value. As an example, Dallas opened the week -2.5 over Philly, went up to 7.5, dropped to 3.5 and ended up with a final line of 6.5.

Unfortunately, it’s hard for me to be able to give the readers these edges just writing this column on a Saturday night. There’s no use in me giving out stale lines, so it will be a shorter selection of picks than usual. No worries, as there will be plenty of opportunities this postseason to make some more money.

Green Bay Packers -3 at Detroit Lions

Let me first say I think it’s ridiculous that the Packers are playing their key starters at all in this game. There is no way that the juice is worth the squeeze in this scenario. Playing a quarter or a half is not going to be the difference in three weeks. It’s just not.

Playing on the turf where you are more prone to injuries makes me hate this even more. “Momentum” carrying over from a quarter or half of football from three weeks ago makes no sense. If there is an injury if any kind, Matt LaFluer will have some serious explaining to do. Since the Packers do seem intent on playing their guys for whatever reason, a first half bet seems to be the way to go here.

Green Bay is -1.5 in the first half, which is obviously a steal if their starters most of the way, which it does seem like will be the case.

Pick: Packers -1.5 first half two units

Jacksonville Jaguars +15 over Indianapolis Colts 1 unit 

Conventional wisdom would have you believe that teams that need to win to reach the postseason generally play well with all the extra motivation. Conventional wisdom would be incorrect. Favorites of 3.5 points or more playing a must-win game in the final week of the regular season against an eliminated team are just 10-22 ATS over the last 32 games.

This number is way too high for a Colts team that is not an explosive offense and are a major regression candidate in the turnover margin category (+16). Obviously, there is nothing good to say about Jacksonville, but this is a play against an inflated number on a team in a spot that has historically been bad in recent memory.

Atlanta Falcons +4.5 over New Orleans Saints 1 unit

The Saints fall into the same category as the Colts in a must-win game against an eliminated team. New Orleans as a favorite is a team to avoid with Taysom Hill under center and there are still injuries on the offensive line.

 

 

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