Unfortunately, our bad Week 1 bled into Week 2 with a 1-3-1 week and a loss of two units to bring our yearly total to 6-9-2 and a loss of six units. Luck was certainly not in our favor with the Chargers having two touchdowns get overturned on questionable calls and the Chiefs choking away a win over the Ravens.
The Steelers were the wrong side against Las Vegas, but it did not help matters when T.J. Watt got injured. Joe Burrow throwing interceptions on three straight passes is unheard of, although the Bengals were able to salvage a push out of it. Carolina dominating New Orlelans was our only victory of the afternoon.
No time to panic, so let’s move on and dominate Week 3.
Green Bay Packers (+3) at San Francisco 49ers
Nothing has changed between these two teams to make me believe this is any less of a horrific matchup for the Packers.
There are many games in which Green Bay could survive Dennis Kelly and Billy Turner starting at the tackle spots, but San Francisco is unlikely to be one of them. Kyle Shannahan against Joe Barry is as big a mismatch as you could find in the NFL. If the Packers really plan on playing Kevin King in the slot against Deebo Samuel that could turn embarrassing.
Also, the defensive line getting railroaded in its first two games does not bode well going into Santa Clara. It doesn’t matter how many injuries the 49ers have at running back with that big of a mismatch up front.
As you can tell, I’m strong on the 49ers here. I also like the over a ton since I already mentioned how the San Francisco offense should roll and Aaron Rodgers has a weak group in the secondary to pick on.
Pick: San Francisco -3 2 units and Over 49.5 2 units
Chargers (+7) over Chiefs 1 unit
You probably did not know that the Chiefs are just 1-10 ATS over their last 11 games. Even coming off a loss, this number is too high for me. The Chargers have a big edge on offense against a weak Kansas City defense and are underrated since they should have won last week.
Bears (+7.5) over Browns 2 units
I was planning against the Bears just about every week until Justin Field took over, but now I will be on them with him starting. Jarvis Landry is out for Cleveland and Odell Beckham Jr. is making his first appearance since his torn ACL. I don’t see them having the firepower to gain separation, and the Cleveland defense has not looked nearly as good as I thought it would through two weeks.
Dolphins (+4) over Raiders 3 units
My top spot of the week. Nobody wants to bet the Dolphins coming off last week, but Jacoby Brissett should not be much of a downgrade with time to prepare. I still don’t think the Raiders are a better team than Miami despite their 2-0 start, which is what this line.
Indianapolis Colts (+6) over Tennessee Titans 2 units
Tennessee is another overvalued team that got extremely lucky to beat Seattle. The defense is horrific for the Titans, so I don’t care who is playing quarterback for the Colts. The desperate 0-2 team should be able to stay inside this number
Michael Pittman over 49.5 yards 1 unit
Pittman dominated last week with eight catches for 123 yards and the Tennessee secondary has allowed 6 receivers to go over this total in two weeks
Darnell Mooney over 39.5 receiving yards 1 unit
Role has expanded with the departure of Anthony Miller. Had a good chemistry with Fields last week and has 15 targets through two weeks
Jared Cook over 35.5 receiving yards 2 units
Cook surprisingly has a 28 percent target share through two weeks. The upside here in a potential shootout is tremendous. KC allowed the fifth most yards in the NFL to tight ends last year.
Chris Gowdin over 69.5 receiving yards 1 unit
Another likely shootout and no Antonio Brown in the lineup.