Beating the NFL is never easy and we’re finding out the hard way thus far. It was an even 5-5 Week 3 and also even in the unit count, which brings our yearly total to 11-15-2 and still a loss of six units. If you bet long enough, these streaks will come and all you can do is continue to grind and trust the process, which is what we will do to turn this around.
Green Bay Packers (-6.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Packers definitely surprised me last week to hand me one of my losses, although we were able to make up for it with the over hitting. The defensive line came to play limiting the 49ers rushing attack and getting pressure on Jimmy G. It was the biggest and most impressive regular season win for Green Bay in some time.
I have no interest in betting the Packers this week because it’s such an obvious flat spot coming off an emotional victory. Yet, I cannot possibly bring myself to bet the Steelers. I was very low on them coming into the year and they have certainly lived up to expectations. Big Ben looks shot and the offensive line might be the NFL’s worst unit. Still, you’ll be getting their best effort at 1-2. This is a pure pass for me this week.
Seattle Seahawks (+3) over San Francisco 49ers 3 units
The Seahwaks are not a team I bet on a ton since they’re usually overvalued, but this is a spot to love them. It’s hard to see them losing three in a row, and Russell Wilson as an underdog of three to Jimmy G is something I want to play on. The San Francisco injuries to Josh Norman, George Kittle, Javon Kinlaw and Elijah Mitchell don’t hurt.
New York Giants (+7.5) over New Orleans Saints 2 units
Everybody thinks this is a home run spot for the Saints playing their first home game of the season, but I see it as a distraction. Being home for the first time in forever can cause distractions in your everyday life. Plus, I think the Saints are overrated and the Giants are a little underrated. New York could easily be 2-1, and if it was this spread would not be over seven points. New Orleans does not have an explosive enough offense to trust to cover this.
Minnesota Vikings (+2) over Cleveland Browns 2 units
Fading the public again here with the underrated Vikings. They could easily be 3-0, and if they were they would certainly not be home underdogs. Very quietly, Kurt Cousins has played the best football of his career thus far. Cleveland will find things much tougher this week than they did in Chicago.
Carolina Panthers (+4.5) over Dallas Cowboys 1 unit
Betting against the publicly backed Cowboys coming off a huge Monday Night Football win is an easy call. I was on the Cowboys for that game against a banged up Eagles team short on talent to begin with, but Carolina remains underrated in the market. This spread should be closer to three.