Team Degenerate: Green Bay Packers and Week 9 NFL Betting Preview

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It’s been that kind of year so far. It would have been a great week last week if not for one of the most ridiculous losses you will ever see courtesy of the Indianapolis Colts.

As our four-unit play last week, the Colts were no doubt the right side. They got up 14-0 early before letting Tennessee back in the game. It could have been put away early if not for a Colts player getting injured while returning Ryan Tannehill’s second interception of the game, fumbling the ball and the officials awarding the Titans the ball even though the Colts came out of the pile with it.

Then you have the ridiculous Carson Wentz turnovers at the end of the fourth quarter and overtime. The one in overtime was especially hideous throwing to a triple-teamed Michael Pittman when Jonathan Taylor was wide open underneath. Speaking of him, he should have gotten a lot more than 16 carries. Indianapolis held Derrick Henry to 2.4 yards per carry on 28 attempts and yet somehow still lost.

We got great closing line value with Indy and Minnesota, which is all you can do. Unfortunately, you cannot control teams shooting themselves in the foot, which Minnesota did with awful play calling in not getting Dalvin Cook the ball enough. The props were pretty good and we ended Week 8 at 5-5 with a loss of three units to bring the season total to 21-29-2 with a loss of 13 units. Hopefully, the luck turns around in the second half of the year.

Green Bay Packers (+7) at Kansas City Chiefs

The Packers fall into one of the situations I usually love to bet on — a good team playing with a short-term backup quarterback. It was only preseason, but Jordan Love looked competent and was pretty impressive against a Bills defense that has been one of the best in the NFL this season.

The theory is the rest of the team plays harder with the backup quarterback in to make up for the loss of the starter. The Packers thrived in the underdog role last week in Arizona, and I expect something similar here.

The Chiefs didn’t look much better against the Giants last week. The turnover issues may correct due to positive regression, but outside of Tyreek Hill right now they do not have much on offense that scares you with Travis Kelce looking a little old at the moment. You don’t need me to tell you how bad their defense has been, so this is not a team that should be laying over this many points right now.

Pick: Packers +7 2 units

San Francisco 49ers -2 over Arizona Cardinals 3 units

The 49ers should have won this game in Arizona the first time and are starting to get healthier with the return of George Kittle. I do not expect Kyler Murray or DeAndre Hopkins to play for Arizona, so this was one that was good to lock up early.

Houston Texans +6 over Miami Dolphins 3 units

Tyrod Taylor being back for Houston makes all the difference here. Miami should not be favorites over this much over anyone and are without any weapons with Devante Parker back on the sidelines with a hamstring injury.

Falcons at Saints under 21 first half 2 units

The Falcons have absolutely nothing at wide receiver without Calvin Ridley and are facing one of the best defenses in the league. Meanwhile, Trevor Siemian can likely be expected to return back to earth with no weapons to work with either.

LA Rams -7 over Tennessee Titans 1 unit

Let’s try going against Tennessee again. I expect them to be tired following an overtime game and a few huge games before that. The Rams have a huge matchup edge in the passing game against the Titans secondary.

Chicago Bears +6 over Pittsburgh Steelers 1 unit

The Steelers do not have the firepower on offense to cover this many points. Quietly, Justin Field played a lot better last week against San Francisco.

 

 

 

 

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