Despite the efforts of a disastrous football team, Team Degenerate made it back-to-back winning weeks going 4-2 and up two units in Week 3. That brings the season total 13-6-1 and +7 units.
Lesson learned on blowing three units on a terrible football team like the New York Giants, who got embarrassed at home by the junior varsity squad of the San Francisco 49ers. The Saints accounted for our other loss going against the Packers, but that’s one we’ll gladly take.
Carolina won outright as seven-point underdogs to the Chargers while the Bills had to hang on for dear life to get us a win against the Rams after leading 28-3. Our player props took us over the top with D.K. Metcalf and Terry McLaurin both cashing easily. With the recap of Week 3 in the books, let’s look ahead to Week 4.
Atlanta Falcons (+7) at Green Bay Packers
After having a pretty good idea of what to expect in the first three games for the Packers, I can see this game going a number of different ways. While Atlanta is a laughing stock right now for how they have blown numerous fourth quarter leads this season, that does still mean they were good enough to get those leads in the first place.
That is mostly because of the wide receiver duo of Calvin Ridley and Julio Jones, which is likely the best twosome in the league. Ridley has been the best receiver in the NFL to date with 21 catches for 349 yards and four touchdowns while Jones is a sure-fire Hall of Fame player.
The Packers pass rush has been mostly non-existent this year, so now would be a really good time for the Smith brothers to start getting consistent pressure on the quarterback. Getting Kenny Clark back from injury would help in that regard. Green Bay’s defense currently ranks last in the NFL giving up 6.6 yards per play.
Atlanta’s defense is not much better at 6.4 yards per play allowed with three key players — defensive end Takk McKinley and safeties Keanu Neal and Ricardo Allen yet to practice this week — yet to practice this week. Expect more of the same for a Green Bay offense that has been unstoppable this year, even without Allen Lizard.
I can see a wide range of outcomes in this game from a Green Bay blowout to even an Atlanta outright upset. The most likely is a potential Matt Ryan backdoor cover. This is a game I’m avoiding for betting purposes.
Detroit Lions (+4) over New Orleans Saints 2 units
There was value on this spread even before the final injury report came out for the Saints. Michael Thomas, cornerbacks Marcus Lattimore and Janoris Jenkins, guard Andrus Peat, tight end Jared Cook and defensive end Marcus Davenport are all out for New Orleans.
On the contrary, Detroit is getting much healthier. It’s a different offense with Kenny Golladay back in the mix, and he should be even healthier in his second week back in action. Desmond Trufant should also be back in the secondary.
The advantage New Orleans has with its offensive line against the Detroit defensive line and a big edge in coaching are two worrisome things, but there are too many injuries for New Orleans that Drew Brees can no longer compensate for. Look for the Lions to have another nice week after upsetting Arizona on the road in Week 3.
Miami Dolphins (+6.5) over Seattle Seahawks 2 units
Here is an ugly dog that nobody will want to bet this week. Miami is in a great spot here with extra time to prepare against a Seattle team that has played two exhausting shootouts in a row that have come down to the last play of the game. They are also making the longest trip possible in the NFL to play in extreme heat that they are not used to.
Despite Russell Wilson basically playing perfectly at quarterback, Seattle has had their last two games come down to the end because of their horrendous defense. Their only stud on that side of the ball, safety Jamal Adams, has been ruled out. Ryan Fitzpatrick can either keep this game close throughout or come through with a backdoor cover. Seattle is allowing 440 yards passing per game this season.
Los Angeles Chargers (+7) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1 unit
While we were against the Chargers as big favorites last week, they’re much more appealing as big underdogs. Los Angeles lost only twice last year by over a touchdown and generally play very close games. The fact that Anthony Lynn’s awful coaching prevents them from winning most of those close games will not hurt us here.
The Chargers should have never lost last week as they outgained Carolina by a healthy 436-302 advantage in yards, but four turnovers doomed Los Angeles. That makes them an undervalued team this week. Defensively, the Chargers with a strong pass rush should match up well against Tom Brady, who is incapable of making plays while pressured anymore.
Injuries are a concern as the Chargers will be without Chris Harris, Mike Williams, Bryan Bulaga and Trai Turner, but I’ll still take the seven points.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) over Cincinnati Bengals 1 unit
This is another good opportunity to play against public perception. The public perception is that the Bengals are better than their 0-3 record because of rookie quarterback Joe Burrow. While he has been impressive, the Bengals still rank dead last in the NFL at 4.2 yards per play because of their awful offensive line and the defense is still not good.
Meanwhile, the public is down on Jacksonville because they saw them get waxed by Miami on national television. The offense was missing wide receiver D.J. Chark, who is their best playmaker. The Jaguars will have extra rest while the Bengals played a full overtime game last week against Philadelphia.
Buffalo Bills (-3) over Las Vegas Raiders 1 unit
I still don’t think the market has caught onto how good the Bills are. Road favorites are not usually my thing, but Buffalo should be able to move to 4-0 here. The Raiders are missing rookie wide receivers Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards, while Josh Allen should be able to continue his MVP campaign against a Las Vegas defense that is ranked 31st in Football Outsiders DVOA.