It was an excellent week in Week 10 that saw Team Degenerate hit two 3 unit plays with the Rams easily cashing over the Seahawks and Jerry Jeudy going over his yardage prop in a garbage time special. While Jeudy was some fortunate luck, we were also on the other end of some bad luck as Nick Chubb going out of bounds at the 1 yard line turned a Browns winner into a push and the Cardinals kneeling on a 2-point conversion cost another win.
All in all, it was 5-3-1 week for Team Degenerate and +5 units in profit. For the season, that brings the record to 38-23-2 with a gain of 19 units. Let’s keep the good times rolling into Week 11.
Green Bay Packers (+2) at Indianapolis Colts
Due to the fact that the Green Bay Packers are one of the most publicly backed teams on the betting market on a weekly basis, I very rarely see line value in their favor. However, this is one instance that I do, as I do not understand this line. The line based on my power ratings is Green Bay -1, so that is three points of value.
I don’t see how the Packers should be downgraded much based off last week even though they only beat the Jaguars by four. The Packers dominated the yardage 395-260 and the game was only close because of a special teams touchdown and a Davante Adams fumble that allowed for a short touchdown drive. The Packers will also be as healthy as they’ve been all year with Jaire Alexander and Kevin King back and Davante Adams expected to suit up.
I actually maybe see the Packers a little underrated in the market right now because what does everyone remember the most about their season? Easily the blowout loss to Tampa sticks out the most, but that’s really the only awful result of the season with Minnesota looking like not such a bad loss anymore. The Packers have dominated in all of their wins except for last week.
Meanwhile, I see the Colts as slightly overvalued. They were being outplayed by Tennessee last Thursday before a blocked punt returned for a touchdown really turned that game around. While the Indy defensive stats are awfully impressive, the best quarterback they have beaten all year has been either Ryan Tannehill or Matthew Stafford. Aaron Rodgers is certainly on another level from them.
The biggest concern in the matchup definitely is Phillip Rivers against Mike Pettine. Rivers carved Pettine up with the Chargers last year, and Pettine’s soft zone schemes are the perfect match for Rivers to eat up. Hopefully, the game plan will be a little different this time around.
Pick: Packers +2 1 unit
Dallas Cowboys (+7.5) over Minnesota Vikings 3 units
Dallas is as healthy as it has been all year and is coming off a bye following one of its better performances of the year against the Pittsburgh Steelers. This is way too many points for a Minnesota team that is not really a margin team. The Vikings now have to play a team off a bye week following a a physical game on Monday against the Bears. The Minnesota defense could struggle with its corners against the Dallas receivers.
Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) over Las Vegas Raiders 2 units
This was a game I was targeting and bet it at the opening line. Luckily, since it has now moved up to 8 due to some COVID absences for the Raiders. The Chiefs are angry coming off a bye after the Raiders handed them their only loss of the year and rubbed it in their faces. With how bad the Las Vegas defense is, Patrick Mahomes could be looking at over 40 points in this one. Andy Reid is 7-3 ATS off a bye during his Kansas City tenure.
Tennessee Titans (+6) over Baltimore Ravens 1 unit
The Ravens have not been the same team in 2020, but the market has not caught up yet. Even worse, Baltimore will likely be without Calais Campbell and Brandon Williams against Derrick Henry after Damien Harris tore the Ravens up on the ground last week. John Harbaugh is just 3-11 ATS the week prior to the matchup with the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Keenan Allen over 6.5 catches 2 units
Allen has been a monster with Herbert taking over and has hit this number in six of eight starts. Allen has a target rate of 28% with Herbert and will be going against a Jets defense that just released Pierre Desir and lost Brian Poole to an injury.
Diontae Johnson over 56.5 receiving yards 2 units
If you remove two games that he left with injury, Johnson is averaging 10.3 targets per game, which would be good for second in the NFL. Jacksonville’s secondary just lost CJ Henderson for the year and is already one of the worst in the NFL. 15 different receivers have hit this number against the Jags.