It was a great week betting sides for Team Degenerate last week and a below average week on our player props. We were an unbeaten 3-0 on teams with the Titans and Packers easily coming through and the Tampa Bay Bucs giving us a fortunate backdoor cover. The props were just 2-4. It all added up a 5-4 week at plus one unit. For the season, it has still been extremely profitable at 48-29-2 with a gain of 25 units.
There is a game on this week’s slate that I like more than any other this season, so be sure to check that out below.
Green Bay Packers (-7.5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles
For the third consecutive week, I will be on the Green Bay side. The Eagles are really not all that different than the Bears — a team with an above average defense but a hideous offense. The Eagles and Bears might not be the worst teams in the NFL, but they might be the worst two in the NFL to watch.
The Packers have no distractions on deck with a game against the Lions next week, and should be focused again on trying to get the top seed in the NFC. You have to have an offense that can match what Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are doing right now, and the Eagles certainly do not have that. They will be using their 11th different combination on the offensive line this week, and the Packers have a number of pass rushers capable of taking advantage.
The Eagles have only covered three games all year. Two of those were against Ben DiNucci and Nick Mullens, and they were lucky to cover both. This spread should be closer to double digits.
Pick: Packers -7.5 2 units
Cleveland Browns (+6) over Tennessee Titans 5 units
This is game of the year territory for me as this line just makes no sense. My numbers would have this as Tennessee -3. The line value is coming because the Titans are off two high profile wins over Baltimore and Indianapolis. Well, the Baltimore win doesn’t seem as great right now, and we were on Tennessee last week because the Colts were missing key defensive linemen due to COVID. The Colts also suffered key injuries on the offensive line during that game. It was a perfect storm for the Titans to dominate in a revenge spot.
In addition to the line value, it’s a tough spot for the Titans after coming off three big games in a row. The Titans have only won three games by this margin all year, yet they’re laying six to the Browns? Cleveland is not as good as their record, but the Tennessee defense is not good enough to get margin here and the Browns can shorten the game with their rushing attack. The Titans can’t generate pressure on any quarterback, and Baker Mayfield’s weakness is when he is against a strong pass rush.
Houston Texans/Indianapolis Colts Under 50.5 3 units
This is another wager that I love for this week. DeShaun Watson throws for 55 yards less per game and one touchdown less per game without Will Fuller in the lineup. This is an 18-game sample size when he had DeAndre Hopkins at his disposal and the Texans are also without Randall Cobb and Kenny Stills.
For the Colts, they will be without left tackle Anthony Castonzo. After he left the game last week, Indy averaged just 3.9 yards per play. Phillip Rivers is also banged up with a toe injury. This number has not been adjusted enough as one of the higher totals of the week.
A.J. Brown over 64.5 yards 2 units
The Browns are the 20th ranked pass defense in the NFL in yardage and will be without top corner Denzel Ward. The Browns have even worse pass defense numbers if not for two games played in severe winds. Brown should be able to have his way here.
Michael Thomas over 59.5 yards 2 units
Thomas posted 104 yards against Atlanta two games ago with Taysom Hill at quarterback. The Falcons are allowing the second-most WR yards per game this season. Thomas has a 46% target share from Hill and has accounted for nearly half of his completions. The Saints did not need to pass last week in Denver, but that will likely change here.
Justin Jefferson over 67 yards 1 unit
Jefferson has gone over this number in five of his last eight games. The Jaguars have been absolutely hideous against the pass this year and have been torched by Diontae Johnson and Jarvis Landry over the past two weeks. Jefferson leads the NFL in yards per route run and the Jaguars give up 9.35 yards per target to receivers. Game script is the only concern.
Calvin Ridley over 65.5 yards 1 unit
Ridley is simply too talented for his number to be this low and should get this regardless of whether Julio Jones plays. Janoris Jenkins will be out for New Orleans.