It was a 3-3 week with a loss of two units in Week 9 thanks to two losses — the 49ers and Texans — where we beat the closing line by over two points going through key numbers of three and six, respectively. Those are still bets I would make every time.
We beat the market on Kyler Murray/Deandre Hopkins being out and Tyrod Taylor returning and got great numbers, which is all you can control. Long term, you will win when you’re beating the closing line. It’s actually really the only way to win. The Packers, Bears and the first half under in New Orleans/Atlants came through as winners. We’re still trying to work our way back with a season record of 24-32-2 and a loss of 16 units.
Green Bay Packers (-3.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks
This is a hard game to judge with questions about how ready both quarterbacks will be for this game. Aaron Rodgers has had zero time on the practice field while Russell Wilson is likely not yet 100 percent with his finger. I’ll side with the Packers because I do feel the line is a little short and the Seahawks have been overrated the past few years. Look at the roster, Seattle is basically what the national media says the Packers are — a team relying way too much on its quarterback. The defense still stinks and the offensive line is still a question mark.
Packers -3 1 unit
Philadelphia Eagles +3 over Denver Broncos 4 units
The Eagles have been playing pretty well in recent weeks since they have been more committed to running the ball. Their losses have all been competitive ones against good teams.
I think Denver’s upset of Dallas last week is more of Dallas just not showing up more than anything that Denver did. People will soon quickly forget how bad they looked in prior weeks. The Broncos will be without Garret Bolles and Graham Glasgow on the offensive line, their top two inside linebackers and slot corner Bryce Callahan. Not only does the spot favor Philly, but they are also the better team.
Los Angeles Chargers -3 over Minnesota Vikings 3 units
Once again, we have a spot and injury situation that favors the better team. The Vikings are making their second consecutive trip going across the country and are doing so following an overtime game. They will be missing Harrison Smith, Michael Pierce and Anthony Barr on defense while having to deal with COVID-19 and Dalvin Cook distractions this week.
Dallas Cowboys -8 over Atlanta Falcons 2 units
Covering large spreads often comes down to motivation, and Dallas will certainly be focused following an embarrassing loss last week. In fact, it could be Atlanta is the flat team following a big division win over New Orelans. Atlanta will not have the weapons to keep up here and I do believe the Falcons are overrated. Besides last week against a backup quarterback, their three wins have been over both New York teams and the Dolphins by a combined 14 points across all four wins.
Las Vegas Raiders +2.5 over Kansas City Chiefs 2 units
The wrong team is probably favored here. The Raiders outgained the Giants 403-245 last week, which makes that a fluky loss. Meanwhile, the Chiefs averaged 1.2 fewer yards per play against the Jordan Love version of the Packers. Absolutely nothing they have done this year suggests they should be road favorites over the Raiders.
New England Patriots -1.5 over Cleveland Browns 1 unit
New England is perhaps the most underrated team in the NFL right now and I believe they’re at least as good as Cleveland with Baker Mayfield still banged up.